What I learned during my blogging hiatus: observation #1

It’s been a while since I blogged – mostly due to the Catalyst conference and workload.  But in an attempt to get back in the swing of things, I’ll be posting a series of short “What I learned during my blogging hiatus” pieces that maybe be thought provoking, and an indication of what is on my mind….

#1: and the winner is….

Apple has the mobility market.  a choke point similar to Windows on the desktop in the 80s-90s (to present).

It has become clear, through conversations and interactions:

• Palm lost it; Treo is totally disregarded by even those who have tried it.  The only hold-ons are those are enamored of its legacy UI
• Windows/MS is out of the picture entirely.  Someone in Redmond was asleep at the switch.
• The G-phone has no traction except for geekdom. A lesson for the new Chrome OS?
• Blackberry is totally running on inertia, and IT support structures – which are evolving rapidly.
• Apple has, in a short time, gathered the kind of head of steam (through apps ( mostly),  and an excellent, innovative UI; their lead has monopoly power; watch for more regulatory intervention.
• Nokia, Samsung, etc.  Good luck. Edge players, at best.  The 4B strong human phone market is large enough it will support many smaller, targeted solutions – but it will be crumbs, and irrelevant to the enterprise..

There is a risk to the iPhone – mainly security and encryption and remote administration.  But it is one most organizations are willing to take, especially the senior staff of most of those firms.

It is a reign that will last at least 5-7 years, depending on pricing and further Apple innovation.  It is also changing how we interact – even shorter messages, limited typing, more twitter like, and mucho mucho multimedia. …and it will impact the laptop market.

Look around next time you are in a public space (train station, airport, park).  The near-majority of folks are on iPhones.  Those that aren’t rue the day they can be. And new iPhone apps are exacerbating the demand.

Comments

[Alan Walsh]

Are your conclusions entirely based on personal observations of people in public places? It would seem so, because the publicly available reports concerning actual market share do not support your conclusions: http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2329913,00.asp.

By all accounts RIM continues to grow its dominant position over Apple in both the US and the global market.

I think it's dangerous to predict a 5-7 "reign" for anyone -- but especially when considering that reign has not yet even begun.

[Jack Santos]

Alan makes a fair criticism. And there may still be some surprises in store, no doubt. Yes, my blog comments tend to be based on anecdotal and personal observations - which eventually lead to hard research at Burton Group. My observations were entirely just that: observations and conversations; random, predominantly business folks, usually at a conference or on a plane. It doesn’t sound like we disagree on my conclusions for MS, Google, Palm or the others. As you (and the market stats) point out, there is still a strong presence of Blackberries (I have 5 old ones in a drawer myself). The real question is the trend, effects of pricing (which will change as iPhone pricing challenges the entry level, and cheaper bandwidth pricing comes online), and the latent affects of a 3rd party software infrastructure...my guess is that will tell a different story. And, sad to say, I couldn’t find one current blackberry user (out of dozens) that wasn't itching for their plan to end....or their company to change policy. But that could be "CNG" effects (Cool New Gadget) by status hungry road warriors.

Thanks, Alan!

[True Religion Outlet]

Times and Roku is what thye ARE NOT doing by keeping old business models while inventing new ones. Sort of one hand not knowing what the other is doing. Roku rolls out new platforms but hasn't tackled the key question of selling more boxes. You need one for each TV. Why not discount multiple orders for people with more than one TV? Financial Times wants to make online access free or pay depending upon the frequency of use, but it continues to charge customers TWO fees if the customer subscribes to print AND wants an subscription online as well. Do the people in office A ever talk to the people in office B