The Economy: End of the beginning or beginning of the end?
Posted by: Jack
End of the beginning or beginning of the end? How can we tell?
Jobs report not as bad as people expected. IT recruiters are telling me they are as busy as ever (hard to tell sometimes -- it's a business that runs on hype). Like a mouse through a snake, the credit crunch winds its way through foreign economies, without as big an impact as here. Growth in Asia is fairly strong, constant. Weak dollar has helped out exports; Multinationals (like IBM) still report strong profits. The market breaks 13000.
On the down side is inflation -- gas, food increases are hitting hard. IT shops are holding steady - no real layoffs or reductions, but lots of belt tightening.
Then there are the gloom and doomers - the '29 club. An expectation that the past year has been just a taste of things to come , and reflects fundamental flaws in our economic system.
On balance, the positives outweigh the negatives, IMHO. 2008 is over. What's done is done. 2009 is not going to be a gang buster year, but we'll see more growth than 07-08. The "mule" scenarios (apologies to Asimov's Foundation) that could upend that? Food/energy gets much worse, consumer credit (read: cards) becomes an issue and banks start to fail. I think those are a possibility, but not likely.
And throughout it all, in the second major economic downturn of the Internet era, it is clear that IT has finally gotten some respect and is not the whipping boy, or choice of first resort, for cutbacks.
That's progress.
